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Businesses and Consumers Likely Protected From Near-Term RecessionSubmitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on April 25th, 2022
Not all recessions are created equal. Previous downturns in the U.S. were prompted by various shocks, with the most recent recession started by health and government-induced shutdowns. Other recessions started in the corporate sector, whereas some started from commodity shocks. The next one could start from geopolitical tensions.
What To Watch This Earnings SeasonSubmitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on April 18th, 2022
Headwinds to Global GrowthSubmitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on April 11th, 2022
LPL Research reduced U.S. and global GDP forecasts due to Russian commodity disruptions, elevated inflation dynamics, and higher borrowing costs. Still, we expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.7-3.2% in 2022, supported by business investment and consumer services spending in the latter half of this year. Forecasts for GDP growth in developed economies excluding the U.S.
Our Stock Market Final FourSubmitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on April 4th, 2022
Tempering Our EnthusiasmSubmitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on March 28th, 2022
As the stock market recovered from the 2020 pandemic lows, valuations reached levels not seen since the dotcom bubble more than 20 years ago. The reopening economy and massive fiscal stimulus helped fuel one of the strongest starts to a bull market ever (a bull market that just turned two-years-old last week). Low interest rates were a big part of the story.
In Defense Of Core BondsSubmitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on March 21st, 2022
Core bond investors have experienced one of the worst starts to the year ever, potentially calling into question the validity of bonds in a portfolio. Despite the poor start, we don’t think the value proposition for bonds has changed much. Moreover, with yields on most fixed income markets moving sharply higher, now could be a good time to revisit fixed income markets.
Ready, Set, HikeSubmitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on March 14th, 2022
Downshift in U.S. Growth But Still Above TrendSubmitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on March 7th, 2022
We currently expect the U.S. economy to grow 3.7% in 2022. The risks are to the downside since the Fed may err on tightening too fast, the recent commodity spike may trickle down to the U.S. consumer, and supply and demand imbalances may last longer than expected. This forecast is lowered from our previous 4-4.5% range originally published in Outlook 2022: Passing the Baton.
How Soon Are Rate Hikes Coming?Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on February 28th, 2022
With inflationary pressures running higher than many central bankers are comfortable with, calls for interest rate hikes have become louder. A number of important central bank meetings are set to take place in March including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, to name a few.