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Market Commentary

Why You Shouldn’t Sell in May This Year

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on May 2nd, 2022

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock market adage.

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Businesses and Consumers Likely Protected From Near-Term Recession

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on April 25th, 2022

Not all recessions are created equal. Previous downturns in the U.S. were prompted by various shocks, with the most recent recession started by health and government-induced shutdowns. Other recessions started in the corporate sector, whereas some started from commodity shocks. The next one could start from geopolitical tensions.

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What To Watch This Earnings Season

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on April 18th, 2022

First quarter earnings season is rolling. BlackRock, Delta Airlines, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley were among the first 16 S&P 500 companies to report March quarter results, following 20 index constituents with quarters ending in February that had already reported.

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Headwinds to Global Growth

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on April 11th, 2022

LPL Research reduced U.S. and global GDP forecasts due to Russian commodity disruptions, elevated inflation dynamics, and higher borrowing costs. Still, we expect the U.S. economy to grow 2.7-3.2% in 2022, supported by business investment and consumer services spending in the latter half of this year. Forecasts for GDP growth in developed economies excluding the U.S.

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Our Stock Market Final Four

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on April 4th, 2022

We have identified our four key factors for the stock market outlook: 1) Consumer spending, 2) Earnings, 3) Interest rates, and 4) Inflation. We also celebrate last year’s winner: COVID-19 vaccines. Below we discuss these four factors, how they may influence markets this year, and pick our winner. 

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Tempering Our Enthusiasm

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on March 28th, 2022

As the stock market recovered from the 2020 pandemic lows, valuations reached levels not seen since the dotcom bubble more than 20 years ago. The reopening economy and massive fiscal stimulus helped fuel one of the strongest starts to a bull market ever (a bull market that just turned two-years-old last week). Low interest rates were a big part of the story.

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In Defense Of Core Bonds

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on March 21st, 2022

Core bond investors have experienced one of the worst starts to the year ever, potentially calling into question the validity of bonds in a portfolio. Despite the poor start, we don’t think the value proposition for bonds has changed much. Moreover, with yields on most fixed income markets moving sharply higher, now could be a good time to revisit fixed income markets.

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Ready, Set, Hike

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on March 14th, 2022

The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets this week and in all likelihood will raise short-term interest rates for the first time since emergency levels of monetary accommodation were provided to markets after the COVID-19 shutdowns.

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Downshift in U.S. Growth But Still Above Trend

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on March 7th, 2022

We currently expect the U.S. economy to grow 3.7% in 2022. The risks are to the downside since the Fed may err on tightening too fast, the recent commodity spike may trickle down to the U.S. consumer, and supply and demand imbalances may last longer than expected. This forecast is lowered from our previous 4-4.5% range originally published in Outlook 2022: Passing the Baton.

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How Soon Are Rate Hikes Coming?

Submitted by Flynn Zito Capital Management on February 28th, 2022

With inflationary pressures running higher than many central bankers are comfortable with, calls for interest rate hikes have become louder. A number of important central bank meetings are set to take place in March including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, to name a few.

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