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2022 has been rough all-around for the American consumer. Not only are we battling decades-high inflation, but investors’ portfolios are off to one of the worst starts to a year in history as we near the halfway point. Our technical work is first and foremost rooted in trend following, and the trend in both stock and bond prices so far this year have of course been down.

The bear market that started on June 13 has left the S&P 500 Index 23.5% below its January 3 high.

A bear market is officially here thanks largely to stubbornly high inflation. For many of us, it has probably felt like a bear market for a while now, but the S&P 500 Index didn’t close more than 20% below its January 3 record high until Monday. Tech stocks are down a lot more—the Nasdaq Composite is more than 32% below its November 2021 record high.

This year has been tough for investors, not just because stocks have fallen but also because bonds have not helped mitigate those losses as they have historically done. Below we discuss the outlook for diversified portfolios of stocks and bonds to make the case that the 60/40 portfolio isn’t dead.

Many pundits are issuing recession warnings and saying the economy is heading for a hard landing. Amid the cacophony of voices, we think the economy is slowing just like central bankers want but not shrinking. Further, we argue that a slowing economy is very different than a shrinking one.

The bull market that began in March of 2020 came dangerously close to an end. From March 23, 2020 through January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 Index gained 114% (excluding dividends). From that January 3 closing high through the recent low on May 19, the S&P 500 fell nearly 19%, narrowly avoiding the level at which bull markets end and bear markets begin.

At the risk of sounding cliché, making the case for stocks to stage a second half rally back to the prior highs requires investors to see through some heavy cloud cover. If you prefer another market cliché, it’s times like these when investors need a crystal ball.

Insurance is crucial for any small business. Small-business owners may find themselves in a difficult situation without proper coverage if they suffer building damage or face a lawsuit. While obtaining adequate insurance for your company is critical, knowing when to reassess your coverage is also essential. As your business grows and changes, so do your insurance needs.

Vacation is something that we all look forward to, but it’s important not to forget about your home—and its safety—while you’re away. With some pre-planning, it’s easy to make sure your house is safe and secure, giving you peace of mind and allowing you to focus on the relaxation and fun of vacation.

For first-time homebuyers and homeowners who are considering refinancing their current mortgages, trying to decide between a fixed or an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) can be a bit puzzling.